How accurate is Hachi?
Hachi makes predictions and then checks them against what actually happened. The whole record is here — the ones we got right, the ones we got wrong, and the ones the evidence can't settle yet.
One honest caveat. Only short-term predictions (6 months) are old enough to have been checked against the news so far. Medium-term calls become eligible to validate in 2027, long-term in 2030. So this accuracy number is, for now, a story about our short-horizon calls — by design, not by cherry-picking.
Where the record comes from.
Each prediction is tagged with a time horizon. Only the matured ones can be checked.
Does our conviction line up with reality?
When Hachi checks a prediction, it records how strongly the evidence pointed one way — a conviction score from 0 to 100. Grouped into bands, here's the share that ended up confirmed in each. Higher conviction should mean a higher confirmed rate.
A note on method: this conviction score is a single axis that also encodes the verdict, so it's a measure of internal coherence, not an independent forecast probability. We show it because it's honest about how we score — not to dress up the numbers. Across the 638 decided calls, the Brier score is 0.083 (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip).
The most recent verdicts.
- — Inconclusive Savings Prioritization Over Early Retirement 9 Oct 2026
- ✗ Contradicted Ray-Ban Meta Glasses Future Uncertain 9 Oct 2026
- — Inconclusive Canva's Affinity Acquisition Consolidates Creative Suites 9 Oct 2026
- — Inconclusive Hedging Against Currency Volatility 9 Oct 2026
- — Inconclusive AI Regulation Sparks Ethics Race 9 Oct 2026
- — Inconclusive Currency Fluctuations Reshape Global Trade 9 Oct 2026
- — Inconclusive AI-Powered Legal Tech Arms Race 9 Oct 2026
- ✓ Confirmed Smart Glasses Competition Intensifies 9 Oct 2026
Most prediction shops only show you the calls they got right. We show you all of them.