Hachi was wrong. 18% confidence
EV Transition Resilience Despite Tax Credits
The prediction that EVs would maintain growth resilience after federal tax credits expired is directly contradicted by the news. New EV sales plunged nearly 28% in Q1 2026 following the end of federal tax credits, and hybrids are gaining market share at the expense of EVs, suggesting consumers are not yet sufficiently confident in EV economics to sustain demand without government incentives.
What would prove this wrong
EV sales volumes or market share drop noticeably following the tax credit expiration, indicating demand was subsidy-dependent rather than resilient.