Hachi was here. 50% confidence
AI Superintelligence Timeline Discrepancy
The single available article merely aggregates thousands of AGI/singularity predictions without indicating a new broadly credible expert consensus that superintelligence is imminent, so the falsification criteria are not clearly met. However, it also doesn't provide clear confirmation that the timeline gap persists, leaving the evidence too thin to judge either way.
What would prove this wrong
Within six months a broadly credible expert consensus emerges agreeing that superintelligent AI is imminent, closing the gap with Silicon Valley's timeline.