Hachi was here. 52% confidence
Social Video Dominance in Politics
There is some relevant supporting evidence—an article specifically titled 'How short-form videos are reshaping elections' and general commentary on visual/short-video culture—suggesting the trend is at least being discussed as ongoing. However, none of the articles provide concrete data on campaign ad spend shifts, specific candidate strategies, or election outcomes tied to digital-first campaigning, nor do they show a comparable digital-first candidate losing decisively, so the falsification criteria are not clearly met either.
What would prove this wrong
Major campaigns over the period continue prioritizing traditional media/canvassing over short-form video with no measurable shift in ad spend or strategy, or if a comparable digital-first candidate loses decisively.