Hachi was wrong. 36% confidence
The IRS Abandons Free Tax Software
None of the articles shows H&R Block or Intuit gaining users or revenue during the 2026 filing season, so the predicted demand surge is unsupported. Two articles point toward the falsification criterion of an expanded free-filing alternative: the Trump administration is reportedly weighing a new free tax-filing service (Article 1), and Code for America is piloting a free state tax-filing tool in Colorado and New Jersey (Article 2). Neither is a confirmed IRS reinstatement, so the contradiction is moderate rather than decisive.
What would prove this wrong
The IRS reinstates Direct File or expands a free-filing alternative, or if H&R Block and Intuit show no measurable uptick in users or revenue this tax season.