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Hachi was wrong. 25% confidence

MacBook Air Price Erosion Threatens PC Market

Rather than aggressively undercutting Windows laptops, Apple raised MacBook Air/Pro prices due to memory shortages, leading to shortages and reduced pricing pressure on the mid-range PC market — directly matching the falsification criteria of no measurable competitive squeeze. Meanwhile Windows/cheap laptop options continue to be actively marketed and reviewed (Wirecutter's cheap laptop picks, WIRED's Windows-vs-Apple comparison), suggesting the mid-range PC segment remains competitive rather than eroded.

Predicted 13 October 2025
Validated 1 May 2026
Horizon short
What would prove this wrong

Within six months, mid-range Windows laptop sales or market share remain stable or grow despite the MacBook Air's pricing, showing no measurable competitive squeeze.

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Supporting articles

  • WIRED This Windows Laptop Makes the MacBook Neo Look Overpriced 14 April 2026

Contradicting articles

  • The New York Times The 6 Best Cheap Laptops of 2026 | Reviews by Wirecutter 27 August 2026
  • Tech Edition MacBook Air shortages grow after price increase as Apple adjusts sales strategy 3 August 2026
  • PCMag MacBooks Are the Latest Victim of the Memory Shortage. Here's Why Laptop Prices Keep Rising 26 June 2026
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