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Hachi was wrong. 30% confidence

Supply Chain De-Risking Accelerates

Multiple recent articles report companies reversing prior diversification efforts and moving manufacturing back to China due to difficulties replicating its supply ecosystem elsewhere, directly matching the falsification criteria of concentration holding steady or increasing. While some diversification continues (e.g., Indonesia's Batam, solar manufacturing shifts), the dominant recent narrative is a partial reversal of the 'China-plus-one' de-risking trend rather than acceleration.

Predicted 23 September 2025
Validated 9 April 2026
Horizon short
What would prove this wrong

Corporate sourcing data or earnings commentary over the next six months shows supply chain concentration in single-source Southeast Asian manufacturing holding steady or increasing rather than diversifying.

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Supporting articles

  • Rhodium Group Solar Manufacturing in Asia at a Crossroads 25 June 2026
  • The Business Times Trump trade war puts Indonesia’s Batam on global factory map 6 August 2026
  • The Business Times One year of Trump tariffs: What has changed and what’s next for South-east Asia? 1 April 2026

Contradicting articles

  • Yahoo Entertainment Companies left China to dodge tariffs. Now some are heading back 14 September 2026
  • The Times of India From India to Vietnam: Why some firms are rethinking the China-plus-one strategy 14 September 2026
  • Modern Diplomacy Why Are Some Companies Bringing Manufacturing Back to China Despite US Tariffs? 14 September 2026
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