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Hachi was wrong. 15% confidence

Trump's H-1B Visa Fee Sparks Chaos

The predictor explicitly defined 'the fee is withdrawn, blocked, or unenforced' as falsifying evidence, and multiple articles confirm a US court struck down the $100,000 H-1B fee as unlawful in June 2026, adding uncertainty rather than driving sustained structural change. While some earlier disruption occurred (e.g. Cisco/Fidelity hiring changes), the fee's judicial invalidation directly matches the falsification criteria, undermining the thesis that the fee itself would durably reshape hiring within six months.

Predicted 22 September 2025
Validated 9 April 2026
Horizon short
What would prove this wrong

The fee is withdrawn, blocked, or unenforced, or H-1B hiring volumes and foreign-talent reliance remain unchanged within six months despite the proposal.

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Supporting articles

  • Thefederal.com The fading American Dream: Visa uncertainty drives Indian tech workers back home 3 August 2026
  • TechGig H-1B Extension Costs Could Rise: Here's How It May Impact Tech Hiring 4 August 2026
  • Raleigh News & Observer Cisco, Fidelity and how Trump’s $100K fee has changed Triangle H-1B visa hiring 17 April 2026

Contradicting articles

  • PBS What to know about Trump's $100,000 H-1B visa fee, and the legal rebuke that followed 11 June 2026
  • TechTarget U.S. court block of H-1B visa fee adds to uncertainty 18 June 2026
  • washingtonpost.com Trump’s $100,000 fee on H-1B visas for highly skilled workers is struck down 8 June 2026
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