Hachi was wrong. 15% confidence
Trump's H-1B Visa Fee Sparks Chaos
The predictor explicitly defined 'the fee is withdrawn, blocked, or unenforced' as falsifying evidence, and multiple articles confirm a US court struck down the $100,000 H-1B fee as unlawful in June 2026, adding uncertainty rather than driving sustained structural change. While some earlier disruption occurred (e.g. Cisco/Fidelity hiring changes), the fee's judicial invalidation directly matches the falsification criteria, undermining the thesis that the fee itself would durably reshape hiring within six months.
What would prove this wrong
The fee is withdrawn, blocked, or unenforced, or H-1B hiring volumes and foreign-talent reliance remain unchanged within six months despite the proposal.
Supporting articles
- Thefederal.com The fading American Dream: Visa uncertainty drives Indian tech workers back home 3 August 2026
- TechGig H-1B Extension Costs Could Rise: Here's How It May Impact Tech Hiring 4 August 2026
- Raleigh News & Observer Cisco, Fidelity and how Trump’s $100K fee has changed Triangle H-1B visa hiring 17 April 2026