Hachi was wrong. 20% confidence
Trump's H-1B Visa Fee Sparks Chaos
The $100,000 H-1B fee was struck down by a court in June 2026, directly matching the falsification criteria of the fee being 'blocked.' While some visa fee hikes (extension fees) persist and there is evidence of Indian tech workers returning home due to visa uncertainty, the core prediction—that the specific $100k fee would force a major hiring overhaul—was undercut by its legal reversal and reports it 'may not be working' as intended.
What would prove this wrong
The proposed fee is withdrawn, reduced substantially, or blocked, or companies show no measurable change in hiring patterns, relocation plans, or automation investment following it.
Supporting articles
- Thefederal.com The fading American Dream: Visa uncertainty drives Indian tech workers back home 3 August 2026
- Hindustan Times US hikes H-1B, L-1 visa extension fee - How will it impact Indian professionals? Explained | Hindustan Times 10 August 2026
- GeekWire Big Tech’s new hiring hurdle: Why bringing international talent to Seattle is now more expensive 12 May 2026