Hachi was right. 68% confidence
Trump's Shifting Russia Policy Impacts Markets
News shows continued volatility and uncertainty tied to Russia sanctions policy, including a specific report of a 5% spike in energy volatility linked to Trump's sanctions bill support, plus ongoing legislative maneuvering (Graham's bill) affecting India/China energy markets. This contradicts the falsification criteria of 'stable and consistent' policy with 'no measurable volatility increase,' supporting the original thesis rather than disproving it.
What would prove this wrong
Russia policy remains stable and consistent over the period, or if markets show no measurable increase in volatility tied to sanctions announcements.
Supporting articles
- The Times of India Lindsey Graham may be dead, but his ‘bunker-buster’ looms over India 13 July 2026
- Sahi Trump Supports Russia Sanctions Bill Spurring 5% Spike in Global Energy Volatility 14 July 2026
- The Economic Times 'That's what Lindsey wanted...': Trump calls for Iran tariffs in Russia sanctions bill 30 July 2026