Hachi was here. 45% confidence
ESIM-Only iPhone Adoption Accelerates
The news shows mixed signals: eSIM continues to expand and reshape carrier dynamics (supporting the broader thesis), but there's also evidence that eSIM adoption is 'stalling' as many users resist abandoning physical SIMs, and no article confirms Apple expanding eSIM-only iPhones to additional countries as specifically predicted. Without direct confirmation of Apple dropping physical SIM slots in new markets with iPhone 17, the falsification criteria aren't triggered, but the supporting evidence is also weak and indirect.
What would prove this wrong
Apple keeps physical SIM slots in the iPhone 17 across the additional countries mentioned, or delays the eSIM-only rollout rather than expanding it.