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Hachi was wrong. 25% confidence

Mortgage Rates Showing Decreasing Trends

Multiple articles reference mortgage rates rising ('higher than ever'), an 'Iran war peak' spike, and falling mortgage approvals alongside stalling housing confidence, directly matching the falsification criteria of rates climbing rather than holding or falling. While one article notes rates 'show signs of falling' after that peak, the overall picture suggests volatility and upward pressure rather than a sustained six-month easing trend.

Predicted 22 August 2025
Validated 23 February 2026
Horizon short
What would prove this wrong

This is disconfirmed if five-year fixed mortgage rates rise back above 5% or continue climbing over the next six months instead of holding or falling further.

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Supporting articles

  • BBC Mortgage rates show signs of falling after Iran war peak 17 April 2026
  • Financial Times UK house price inflation rises as falling energy costs soften interest rate expectations 1 July 2026
  • mpamag.com Nationwide says it's not all doom and gloom — the silver lining in the latest property figures 1 June 2026

Contradicting articles

  • Dailymail.com Can't sell your flat? You're not alone - meet the 'second steppers' struggling to shift first-time buys, with advice from property experts on beating the market 7 July 2026
  • BBC Mortgage rates show signs of falling after Iran war peak 17 April 2026
  • Yahoo Finance UK Home mortgage approvals drop to lowest since December 2023 29 June 2026
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