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Hachi was wrong. 20% confidence

Mortgage Rates Showing Decreasing Trends

The evidence primarily concerns US mortgage rates hovering around 6.5-6.7% (not the UK five-year fixed rates specified in the prediction), and shows housing market activity weakening rather than improving—directly matching the falsification criteria of weakening transaction volumes/buyer demand. Headlines about the 'worst year since 2011', 'cracking' home prices, and a 'Mortgage Rate Shock' stalling an 8-month growth streak all indicate deteriorating conditions rather than the eased financial conditions and supported housing activity the prediction anticipated.

Predicted 22 August 2025
Validated 3 August 2026
Horizon short
What would prove this wrong

UK five-year fixed mortgage rates rise back above 5% or housing market activity (e.g. transaction volumes, buyer demand) weakens rather than improves.

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Supporting articles

  • Yahoo Entertainment Mortgage rates see first drop in six weeks: Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Thursday, August 13, 2026 13 August 2026
  • Yahoo Entertainment Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Friday, August 28, 2026: Rates down ahead of Warsh speech at Jackson Hole 28 August 2026

Contradicting articles

  • Business Insider 3 alarming predictions with the housing market on pace for its worst year since 2011 18 August 2026
  • Business Insider An economist flags a worrying sign of 'cracking' home prices with parallels to the 2008 meltdown 12 August 2026
  • Yahoo Entertainment Home Depot Earnings Preview: Can Pro Demand Offset a Weak Housing Market? 17 August 2026
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