Hachi was right. 72% confidence
Geopolitical Risks Dampen Investor Sentiment
Multiple articles show continued Middle East tensions (Strait of Hormuz, oil supply disruptions) driving up oil prices, bond yields, and denting equity sentiment across US, Japanese, and Asian markets, consistent with the prediction. None of the falsification criteria (de-escalation without market impact) are met; instead, volatility and risk indicators (oil, yields, equity selloffs) rose following these events.
What would prove this wrong
These geopolitical developments de-escalate or resolve without denting investor confidence, or if market volatility and risk indicators do not rise following these events.