Hachi was here. 45% confidence
USD Weakness Fuels Import Concerns
The news mostly focuses on yen weakness and BOJ policy rather than EUR/USD dynamics or direct evidence of US import cost/consumer price pressure tied to dollar weakness against the euro. One article (7) supports the dollar-weakness thesis broadly, while article (8) suggests a 'strong US dollar' context, which could partially match the falsification criteria of dollar strengthening without corresponding cost pressure, though it's not specific to EUR/USD or import costs. Overall the evidence is too indirect and mixed to confirm or contradict the specific EUR/USD thesis.
What would prove this wrong
EUR/USD reverses and the dollar strengthens back toward or above 1.169 without a corresponding rise in reported US import costs or consumer price pressure.