Hachi was wrong. 85% confidence
Nvidia Gains Ground in China Market
Recent news indicates U.S. Commerce Secretary's stance on 'no wiggle room' for Nvidia regarding China chip controls, directly contradicting the prediction's premise that Nvidia secured critical, less-disrupted access and is gaining ground in the Chinese market. This suggests geopolitical factors are actively constraining, rather than being unable to disrupt, key technology supply chains.
What would prove this wrong
The license is revoked or new restrictions block Nvidia's China chip sales, causing the anticipated revenue losses to materialize rather than being avoided.